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For the third time this year markets were hit hard by a black-swan (totally unpredictable) event.
We first had the justifiable after-math of the totally asinine and poorly thought out interest rate hike by our Federal Reserve last December which sent global investors heading for the hills.
Then we had the hugely surprising Brexit event where the oddsmakers had predicted a 90+% chance of the British choosing to remain in the EU and when that did not happen, we had an intense but extremely short-lived 2-3 days sell-off and a bounce for all ages thereafter.
Finally, we have just had the tech-beatdown post the US elections, which again proved every single oddsmakers/pundits/swami/guru/pollster/market research firm totally wrong. Yet again, the markets surprised most investors expecting a Clinton victory and after futures plummeted Tuesday night to raise the specter of a global market collapse, we had a rally from the get-go come the morning after the election results were announced.
Worth noting that if one were hedged for beat-down in the most recent black swan type event (US elections) he/she would have got his teeth kicked in. However, we did see a sell-off in the large cap tech sector and in techland in general post Trump’s victory. Almost likely that too will prove totally unfounded and erroneous once the dust settles in the aftermath of the surprising Trump victory.
So what happens going forward?
Our indices are already trading at all-time highs despite the sweaty hand-wringing by market research firms, pundits, gurus, and swamis who had all predicted a crash if Donald Trump won the Presidency.
Techland has been a major laggard with mega-cap technology stocks all having given back around 10% or so from where they traded prior to the elections.
My take is simple.
Once the same pundits, swamis, gurus, and talking heads on the boob tube finish predicting the “end of the world” for Silicon Valley and techland companies, these companies will be back in favor and will see a sharp appreciation in their share price.
After all, where will investors go looking for growth?
It certainly will not be the Walmarts or the JC Penneys out there, will it?
The question is whether investors will get ahead of the curve and buy now when they can or buy later when they are forced to chase the same large and mega cap tech stocks (aka growth stocks) after they have risen by 10% or more?
It is painful holding some of these names at the moment (at least since the election) however, as we all know the markets have a way of turning pain into ecstasy at a moment’s notice.
Follow me on twitter @jsomaney, find my other Forbes post & articles from other platforms at jaysomaney.com where you can get my real-time opinion on the stock markets live daily
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